Mogadishu (UM) – The Somali political crisis has gone from a potential explosion to a disorganised cold war characterised by wheeling and dealing by both the Prime Minister and the Speaker. Both are still working around the clock to win over MPs who themselves are vying for money, titles and other political favours they can extract from a desperate and bruised government and Speaker.
There are rumours and pictures suggesting the President is now unofficially involved in the dispute process to find a solution to the Vote of No-Confidence against the Speaker. But things do not appear to be going well given that neither the Prime Minister nor the Speaker will back down. Both have fought too hard and long to now agree on a truce. The escalating tit-for-tat statements have raised the stakes too high. Both the Prime Minister and Speaker also have expectant MPs they promised much to in this fight to satisfy. There is also the matter of the ambitions of the First Deputy Speaker, Abdiwali Ibrahim Sheikh Muday, who is been used as a pawn in this high-stake game of wasteful politics in an environment of insecurity, misinformation and poverty.
President Farmaajo has thus far been silent on the whole matter of the Motion, perhaps hoping it will go away and resolve itself. A more sinister interpretation has been that the President is in too deep with the Prime Minister to back down or withdraw his alleged support. However, to date, the President has yet to make his position and feelings clear to the Somali people. The Motion is still driven, in the same way it started, by rumours, mistrust, paranoia and conspiracy theories. The only beneficiaries have thus far been irresponsible MPs who are eating freely in hotels and expecting a reward for supporting one or the other in the dispute. Worryingly, even if an agreement is reached between the Speaker and Prime Minister, there is no way the MPs can be prevented from continuing with the Motion if they do not get what they sought from it.
To mitigate the risk of a Parliamentary process marred with violence and costly disruptions and delays, the President must step up and take the lead. His suspension of the Parliamentary session last week was a sensible act to calm a volatile situation down. It was an opportunity for reflection and compromise. But this did not happen. Instead, the situation is now worse than ever before and the public perception of both the Executive and the Parliament is at rock bottom. If tomorrow’s planned vote goes ahead and is then disbanded like last week or there is violence or disruption, the whole situation in the country will worsen because of further uncertainty. The President, Prime Minister, Speaker and Parliament will be equally responsible for this failure.
To resolve the Motion there are only a few options. Committees will not achieve anything, especially, at this late hour. The first is a transparent vote in line with the constitutional procedures which both sides except as conclusive after the results are announced on the day. The second option is to find a middle ground in which a truce is achieved and a new way of working between Parliament and the Executive is agreed. Both sides must be able to bring their supporters to accept this new arrangement and stop the disruption of the political process in Somalia. The role of the President, as the head of State, is to push for one of these options and communicate with the people the merits of his case. The President is the ultimate peacemaker in this country of confused laws, tribal tensions and uncompleted constitution.
Both the Speaker and Prime Minister are vulnerable and enjoy very little public support because of the Motion. The President should seize on this and bring both sides together for a serious discussion on the political future of Somalia. If both remain stubborn and committed to continuing the dispute, the President should communicate to the people that he has tried his best and that dispute must be resolved by a vote in Parliament. Then, whatever the result, the President must rebuild public and donor trust through political stability. The President cannot afford to favour any side because of the damaging ramifications this would result in if the decision backfires. The President must act in, and wholeheartedly defend, the wider public interest for normality to return in Somalia.
The Somali people and the international partners, both who have invested so much in the country, expect the President to speak up and resolve this political mess. This is a golden opportunity to show leadership and save this country and administration from future crisis, Mr. President.